As of today Microsoft seem determine to take on Yahoo and put it inside Microsoft, whether Yahoo likes it or not. To execute this, $44B is at stake.
My overall feel and impression looking at this "big and bold" move is as follow:
- Seem Microsoft still has the passion to "bet the company" on something that they feel really important. Despite Microsoft's "dull innovations" (in the past few years), seem many of the old Microsoft veterans still have the passion to keep the company exist in important market. Such determination makes this daring initiative look pretty fascinating indeed. Perhaps one day this would mark a "key milestone" and a "symbolic gesture" of the important time in history when the "big, fat, lazy" Microsoft suddenly seriously transformed again to become and "agile, aggressive and responsive" company once more; and throttle its full strength and energy to be "forcefully, competitively, heartfully, creatively and innovatively" be back again in the current (and future) biggest market possible.
- But if I look at this initiatives from other perspective, I have these "disturbing feeling" and concerns that I can not still fully express:
- Has Microsoft been very "innovatively" retarded hence they can not catch up by creating their own innovation?
- Do they really so "behind" that they have to waste $44 billion just to embrace the yahoo brand?
- Or would this be another nostalgic attempt, the same way they did several years ago when Microsoft buy DOS and leverage on it very very smartly and build/enter a very big huge business and industry by acquiring something that other people made??
- Would these old Microsoft veterans try to "replay" the "old nostalgic history" that makes them a great legendary success in the past, and "copy-and-paste" such "magic formula for "today" and into the "future"??
We don't know yet why embracing Yahoo becoming a must-list for Microsoft to do, instead of trying to do something on their own.
Yet despite all these rumors, talks and speculations about the "take over" or "merger" -- the thing that relate with WHY Microsoft need to take this bet, the biggest key question into the future is probably this: WHAT is it that Microsoft really would like to do once it got Yahoo under its wings?.
Understanding WHAT Microsoft would possibly do "through" Yahoo once they get Yahoo under their wing probably would reveal WHY Microsoft really would like to take on Yahoo today -- under its wing.
Let's see and explore the possibility of WHAT Microsoft could/would do once they got Yahoo under their wings:
- Would they use Yahoo as a vehicle for increased source of advertising revenue, so they can lower their Office price offering -- hence they can "hurt" Google in the Office space? -- which is Microsoft "home turf"??
- Would Microsoft leverage Yahoo customer base (who are using Yahoo Mail and Yahoo Messenger Daily) as a base to launch and introduce "new add-on live services" to the market? e.g. for every yahoo mail and yahoo messenger user, now "suddenly" they can have "Office Live" at the click of a button too?? -- which comes at a very reasonable price as well? -- hence creating a "captive market" for their "Office Live" offerings?
- Would Microsoft use Flickr, Delicious and other fascinating assets that Yahoo has as a leverage to build more advertising revenue, so they can lower the Office product (Office Live or Office Desktop) pricing, without hurting their stock valuation in the market?
- Would Microsoft leverage Yahoo infrastructure and turn it to become more "programmable" and "API" ready, so it eventually become the "Web Operating System" that would/could become the homeground to ensure future brighter prospect for Microsoft Windows OS?
- Would this actually be an attempt to win all these "4 key initiatives" at the same time??
- To turn Yahoo mail & Yahoo messenger customer base to become "captive" customer for Office Live?
- To turn Yahoo web advertising revenue + Microsoft web advertising revenue as a base foundation to leapfrog Google in the future?
- To wrap Yahoo services with "programmable" and "friendly" API that would make Yahoo services the first base foundation for Microsoft's future "Web Operating System" .. which eventually would become the future prosperous home ground for the "future Windows OS"?
- To complement Yahoo services (email + YM + flickr + delicious, etc) with Office Live offering, which if complemented with advertising revenue stream would enable Microsoft to lower its Office Live price -- which would enable it to compete agressively with Google Docs; yet at the same time also would enable Microsoft to do so (aka lower its Office systems price) without affecting its market stock valuation?
These questions and speculations are still yet to be seen. I was totally skeptic when I hear Mr. Ballmer or even Mr. Ozzie mention about the plan to take on Yahoo. But when Bill Gates start to stand up on on stage and provide perspective of the company determination to take on Yahoo, or to proceed with their "big bet" goal with or without Yahoo ... for sure this is something that -- may be, seems -- need to be more seriously considered and think about.
What is Microsoft really up to? Are we really going to see Microsoft feeding their "new" Office live offering through Yahoo customer base? Are we really going to see Microsoft using Yahoo's advertising revenue as a basis to lower their Office Live offering, hence it can "flexibly" and "adaptively" compete with Google offerings -- without hurting their stock market valuation?? Or would this just be one of Mr. Ballmer craziest useless ideas -- that one day will be remembered in the annal of CEO and great company leadership as the strangest and most pathetic decision a CEO could ever made?
As of now we don't know yet. Things are remain to be seen. But overall, the recent appearance of Bill Gates to provide support to the ideas is really make this "big-bet ideas" worth a more serious consideration. May be .. and this is probably a BIG speculative MAY BE ... MAY BE Microsoft is really up into something really BIG HUGE and WONDERFUL?
Let's say it's a yes, can Mr. Ozzie execute on that? Based on Mr. Ozzie track record, may be, but whether he will be able to do that in rapid timeline like Microsoft used to be able to do during the DOS, Windows, IE-Browser-War leadership of Bill Gates ... such remain to be seen.
After all, good idea could be a good idea, but ability to execute on those ideas usually will determine success, or failure.
Microsoft today is no longer the same Microsoft we use to know in the 80s or 90s. Its leadership team has changed. Mr. Ballmer, Mr. Ozzie -- and not Bill Gates -- is now in charge. No matter how good the idea is (if it is indeed later on happen to be known to be a "good" or "great idea") ... if the executive team's execution is lauzy, for sure such "big bet" have a very high risk of being a tremendous failure.
We can never predict the future. But we'll see how the future goes if this big-bold-"ugly" initiative eventually take place.
The WHAT (and WHY) Microsoft takes this big bold "seem intuitively crazy" bet to embrace Yahoo as one of its key strategic attempt to make itself relevant again in the future is something interesting and important that worth sometime to think upon.
The future of computing might be heavily influenced by it, one day.
ps: Additional readings related with the "Microhoo" initiatives can also be seen below:
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